The signal is data-backed. A Gallup poll released this spring found 43% of Americans aged 15 to 34 see this as a good time to find a job locally, down from 75% in 2022. This generation is graduating into a price-pressured market with clear preferences and the confidence to say them out loud. That makes them one of the easiest generations to reach with clarity, and one of the hardest to win with vague messaging.

For brands selling to Gen Z grads, or the parents footing the graduation bill, the audience just handed over the playbook: substance over slogans, value over vibes, and honesty over optimism. Price for actual wages, not economic headlines. Offer stability, trust, and tangible value. Gen Z can survive a rough job market. What they won’t tolerate is being talked to like they can’t see through the pitch. Read More ➜

RETAIL

Refunds Gone Rogue

Refunds Gone Rogue

Returns fraud is no longer a retail loophole. It is an industry. NRF’s latest analysis, built on Happy Returns 2026 data, confirms what many operators already suspected: nearly 1 in 5 fraudulent orders now ties back to organized criminal networks coordinating tactics through social media, group chats, and shared scripts. 45% of shoppers say it is acceptable to bend return rules, while 39% of Gen Z admit to sending back a fraudulent decoy instead of the original item.

Congress finally responded this week. The House passed H.R. 2853, the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, with bipartisan backing after years of NRF pressure. The bill strengthens coordination across federal, state, and local agencies targeting organized theft rings and cargo crime, both of which now contribute to the retail sector’s $103 billion annual loss from fraud and theft combined.

For brands and operators, the answer is knowing who or what you're dealing with. Leading retailers are building layered fraud systems that fast-track trusted shoppers while flagging suspicious behavior with AI-driven risk scoring. Returns now sit at the intersection of loyalty and loss prevention, equal parts customer experience and crime scene. The next retail advantage is not faster refunds. It is knowing exactly who deserves one. Read More ➜

TARIFFS

Now You Tariff, Now You Don’t

Now You Tariff, Now You Don’t

Tariff policy changed in two opposite directions this month, and both moves added more uncertainty for operators already planning around instability.

In Washington, the US Court of International Trade ruled on May 7 that the 10% global tariff imposed in February under Section 122 is unlawful. The court only ordered refunds for the plaintiffs who challenged the rule, including toy importer Basic Fun!, Burlap and Barrel, and the State of Washington. Every other importer keeps paying through the 150-day cap that expires July 24. The federal government is now sitting on an estimated $175 billion in tariff refunds owed across this ruling and the February IEEPA decision.

Meanwhile in Beijing, regulators moved in the opposite direction. After 18 months of companies accelerating “China plus one” manufacturing strategies across Mexico, India, and Vietnam, Chinese authorities are now increasing scrutiny on foreign firms shifting production to avoid US tariffs. Brands that diversified early are operating with flexibility. Brands trying to diversify now are doing it under pressure.

For operators, the takeaway is to build for volatility in every direction. Track every Section 122 duty paid since February for refund eligibility, and map which suppliers and routes now sit inside China’s expanding regulatory crosshairs. Tariffs are getting rewritten faster than most brands can model around them, turning flexibility into a margin strategy. The winners this quarter won’t be the cheapest operators. They’ll be the most flexible. Read More ➜

The Cost Of Conflict

3.8%

April headline CPI came in hotter than the 3.7% consensus and the steepest annual jump since May 2023, the second straight month of acceleration. Energy did the heavy lifting again, with gasoline up 28.4% and beef up 14.8% year over year, both still feeling the oil shock from the Iran conflict. Read More ➜

TOTB_full-1

Most commerce teams start their day looking at adashboard. Then another. Then three more, opened in tabs and scanned at speed before the second cup of coffee. By the time you have actually read what is on screen, the fire has already spread.\

Stord CEO Sean Henry calls this the fundamentally broken model of e-commerce operations. Something goes wrong, a dashboard eventually shows it, a team finally acts, and by then the damage is done. “The data was always there. The intelligence wasn’t.”

That changed with the launch of StordAI Feed, a personalized intelligence stream embedded directly into the Stord Commerce Suite. Feed monitors orders, inventory, carrier network, return rates, and demand signals continuously, then surfaces prioritized, actionable alerts before disruptions actually happen. As Stord President and COO Steve Swan puts it, "The brands operating at the highest level aren't just executing faster, they're seeing further."

Feed completes the trio of StordAI products after Chat (launched in Q1) and Search (live a month ago). Brands running on it are making decisions on what is about to happen next, instead of asking what went wrong. The smartest brands aren’t leaving dashboards behind. They’re making them proactive.

TOP READS

Prime Mover: Amazon moved Prime Day to June for the first time since 2021, with $27.6 billion in US spend forecast. Deal submissions close May 26 and if your Q2 inventory plan didn’t just flinch, it should.

Europe Says Temu-n’t and Shein’t: Shein and Temu are facing mounting pressure in Europe as regulators crack down on unsafe products and addictive app design.

Reduce, Reuse, Re-fulfill: Walmart is turning abandoned pharmacies and empty retail stores into localized delivery hubs to speed up fulfillment and challenge Amazon. Dead retail space is getting a second life as last-mile infrastructure.

UPCOMING E-COMMERCE EVENTS

Accelerate 26, May 21-22 in Salt Lake City, Utah.

The global ecommerce acceleration summit built for what’s next: AI-driven growth, agentic shopping, and the future of consumer behavior. Connect with brand leaders, decision-makers, and operators shaping global commerce.

Glossy E-Commerce Summit, June 1–3 in Miami Beach, Florida.

Glossy’s annual gathering for beauty, fashion, and retail leaders exploring customer acquisition, omnichannel growth, and AI-driven personalization. Speakers include executives from Stitch Fix, CVS Health, Sol de Janeiro, Tarte Cosmetics, and Supergoop.

Hemp Beverage Expo, June 17-18 in Austin, Texas. The only executive-level trade event focused exclusively on the hemp beverage industry, bringing together retailers, brands, and buyers to explore the nation's fastest-growing beverage category.

CommerceNext Growth Show, June 23–24 in New York City.

One of retail’s leading conferences for ecommerce and DTC marketers, focused this year on AI search, agentic marketing, and the growth strategies driving breakout consumer brands.

Cosmoprof North America, July 13-15 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The leading B2B beauty trade show in the Americas, connecting beauty brands, retailers, distributors, and suppliers across finished products and supply chain innovation.

See you next week for more commerce news and updates.

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