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The Big ReadTuesday, 09.08.2026View in App

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Get the whole story. Join now.Simon Sebag Montefiore: Who Will Rule the Middle East?

The region has confounded generations of diplomats and intelligence chiefs. Its history offers few predictions, but plenty of warnings about what happens when great powers misread it.

“The relevance of Israel and its existent dilemmas is small compared to the tournament of regional and megapowers, and to the battle within Islam itself that are the issues that really make the Middle East turn,” writes Simon Sebag Montefiore. (Illustration by The Free Press)

By Simon Sebag MontefiorePREVIEW

Is there a more consequential region in the world than the Middle East? Its wars, rivalries, and upheavals have shaped the world for millennia, and show no signs of abating. And few people are better equipped to explain them than historian Simon Sebag Montefiore.

In 2011, Dr. Montefiore released his bestseller, “Jerusalem,” an epic, 3,000-year history of a city whose influence extends far beyond its walls. And in his forthcoming book, “The Cauldron,” he turns to the modern Middle East, tracing its history from 1900 to today.

Today’s essay, which he has written specifically for us, takes on the question at the core of the region’s turbulent history. In a landscape defined by competing powers vying for dominance, who will win? For anyone seeking to understand the forces reshaping the Middle East—and the world—this is essential reading.

And that’s not all. On October 1, Free Press founder and CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss returns to the stage for her first live event in nearly a year, sitting down with Montefiore for the opening night of his U.S. book tour. The two will meet in uptown Manhattan for a wide-ranging conversation about the history that made the modern Middle East, and the forces shaping it now. A limited number of tickets include a signed copy of “The Cauldron.” Get your tickets here. (Paying subscribers get early access to tickets until Thursday at 12 p.m. ET.) You won’t want to miss this. —The Editors

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Every day, it becomes clearer that the tournament of power known as The October 7 Wars—the spasm of conflict between Israel and America versus Iran and its proxies unleashed by Hamas’s slaughter spree three years ago—marks a new era in the turbulent history of the Middle East. While America’s armed blockade may be starting to make gains against Iran (which, in turn, is being quietly supported by the other megapowers, China and Russia), the powers of the region are realigning themselves in profound and once unimaginable ways, trying out new alignments and conjunctions.